نوع مقاله : پژوهشی : مقاله مستخرج از پایان نامه یا رساله دکتری
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The present article provides a multilayered analysis of institutional structures, spatial policymaking, and built environment characteristics related to land-use change in Shemiranat County. Comprising two districts, three rural districts, and four cities — Tajrish, Lavasan, Oshan–Fasham–Meygun, and Shemshak — Shemiranat forms one of the most complex peri-metropolitan spaces around Tehran. The main objective of this study is to analyze the spatial patterns of land-use change and to explain the institutional, policy, and socio-political mechanisms driving these transformations by integrating quantitative spatial analysis with explanatory thematic analysis under a critical orientation, covering the past two decades (2000–2019) and projecting future trends up to 2038 (two 20-year periods).
Applying a mixed sequential–explanatory approach, the study first identifies spatial patterns of land-use changes through quantitative analyses and CA–Markov modeling; then, through explanatory thematic analysis of qualitative data, it interprets the underlying institutional and policy mechanisms. Spatial findings are integrated with qualitative data derived from semi-structured interviews, official document analysis, and field observations within a coherent analytical framework. The results indicate that the Lavasanat district has experienced the highest concentration of land-use changes; Rudbar Qasran has undergone linear expansion along transportation corridors and tourism zones; and urban Shemiran faces endogenous densification and constraints on horizontal growth. Institutionally, the absence of coordination among decision-making bodies, conflicts of interest between local and national levels, and weak regulatory mechanisms have served as major accelerants of land-use conversion in the region. By introducing institutional power indices and policy scenarios, the article proposes a framework to align land policy, spatial governance, and natural resource protection at the county scale.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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