Power, Politics, and the Mechanisms of Land Use Change in the Peri-Metropolitan Region of Tehran; A Case Study of Shemiranat County-Lavasanat

Authors

1 Tarbiat Modares university

2 Tarbiat Modares University

3 Tarbiat Modares Univ

Abstract

The present article offers a comprehensive, multilayered analysis of institutional frameworks, spatial planning strategies, and built environment attributes associated with land-use change in Shemiranat County. Consisting of two districts, three rural districts, and four cities—Tajrish, Lavasan, Oshan–Fasham–Meygun, and Shemshak—Shemiranat constitutes one of the most intricate peri-metropolitan regions surrounding Tehran. The main objective of this study is to examine the spatial patterns of land-use change and to elucidate the institutional, policy, and socio-political mechanisms responsible for these transformations by integrating quantitative spatial analysis with explanatory thematic analysis within a critical orientation. The analysis encompasses the past two decades (2000–2019) and projects future trends up to 2038, covering two 20-year periods.
Applying a hybrid sequential–explanatory approach, the study initially identifies spatial patterns of land-use change through quantitative analyses and CA–Markov modeling; subsequently, it interprets the underlying institutional and policy mechanisms via explanatory thematic analysis of qualitative data. Spatial findings are synthesized with qualitative data obtained from semi-structured interviews, official document analysis, and field observations within a coherent analytical framework. The results indicate that the Lavasanat district has experienced the greatest extent of land-use changes; Rudbar Qasran has undergone linear expansion along transportation corridors and tourism areas; and urban Shemiran is characterized by endogenous densification and constraints on horizontal development. Institutionally, the absence of coordination among decision-making entities, conflicts of interest between local and national authorities, and ineffective regulatory frameworks have significantly contributed to the acceleration of land-use conversion in the region. Through the introduction of institutional power indices and policy scenarios, the article advances a framework designed to synchronize land policy, spatial governance, and natural resource conservation at the county scale

Keywords


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